Riding Profile: Poilievre seeks seventh straight election win in Carleton

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Quick Facts

Population: 102,918 (2016 census)

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Median income: $51,000

About 90 per cent of residents have English as a first language. About 15 per cent identify as immigrants.

The riding sprawls over 1,229 square kilometres.

2019 Result

Conservative: 32,147

Liberal: 26,518

NDP: 6,479

Green: 3,423

People’s Party: 792

Total votes: 69,767

Eligible: 88,701

Turnout: 79 per cent

The Riding

Since it was carved out as its own riding in 2015, Carleton has been Conservative country. More specifically, Pierre Poilievre country. Poilievre has won six consecutive elections for the Tories: four in the former riding of Nepean-Carleton and two more in Carleton.

The roughly U-shaped riding encompasses rapidly growing Stittsville in the west, the rural land south to the Rideau River, then east of the river along the city’s southern boundary as far as Ramsayville Road. It’s a huge area that includes a mix of suburban commercial and housing developments and farmland. With a turnout of 79 per cent in 2019, Carleton voters rank among the most engaged in the country.

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What to watch

Pierre Poilievre was left the last federal Conservative standing in Ottawa in the 2019 election, beating his Liberal challenger by eight percentage points. Unseating him will be a tough challenge. Gustave Roy is a virtual unknown running in his first election campaign, while the NDP candidate finished 25,000 votes behind the Conservatives in 2019. Voters in Carleton also leaned right in the 2018 provincial election, sending Conservative Goldie Ghamari to Queen’s Park with double the vote of her next closest challenger.

While Poilievre has stressed jobs and economic development — he is the Conservatives shadow minister of jobs and industry — if the Liberals are to have any chance at all, it will depend on how much weight voters put on the Liberals’ climate policy and their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The closest the Liberals came to toppling Poilievre was in 2015, when he won by fewer than 2,000 votes. But that gap widened in 2019 to more than 5,000. Flipping Carleton from blue to red would be a tough challenge.

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The Candidates

Conservative: Pierre Poilievre

Poilievre, 42, is the incumbent for the former Nepean-Carleton riding and will carry the Conservative flag in Carleton on Sept. 20. A native Calgarian, Poilievre came to Ottawa as a policy analyst for then-Reform Party leader Stockwell Day and later worked for MP Jason Kenney.

In his first election in 2004, he upset high-profile Liberal cabinet minister David Pratt, and he has been re-elected by voters ever time since then. He made his mark as a cabinet minister in former prime minister Stephen Harper’s government, earning a reputation as one of the party’s aggressive pit bulls. It’s a role he has maintained in opposition, where he has been a partisan and polarizing figure. When Andrew Scheer stepped down as party leader, Poilievre was mentioned as a frontrunner to replace him. Though Poilievre decided not to run, his punchy 30-second “Pierre Poilievre — Fighting for you” ad made such a splash on social media this summer that they’ve rivalled those for Conservative leader Erin O’Toole.

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Poilievre married his wife, Anaida Galindo, in 2018. The couple has one daughter.

Green: No candidate nominated as of Aug. 27

Liberal: Gustave Roy

Roy, 37, grew up in Sherbrooke, Que., but has lived in Ottawa for 25 years. He has travelled extensively and lived abroad in France and Rwanda, experiences that “have shaped his outlook on life and remain a source of inspiration and creativity to this day.”

A graduate of Carleton University, Roy has worked as a financial planner with RBC and in sales with a drug manufacturer. He is married to Valerie, a nurse at Montfort Hospital, and they have one son. He is fully bilingual.

In a video message to voters after securing the nomination on July 15, Roy said Carleton’s “diverse and growing communities deserve to be represented by a positive and collaborative leader, someone who’s willing to work effectively with everyone.”

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This is his first run for office.

NDP: Kevin Hua

Just 20 years of age, Kevin Hua is making his second bid for Parliament. He is a third-year Carleton University student studying Public Affairs and Policy Management with a subject specialty in Social Policy. As a student, he’s worked on a co-op placement with the Department of Crown-Indigenous Relations and he also volunteers with Around the Campfire, which works with autistic children. Hua ran in Carleton for the NDP in the 2019 election.

People’s Party: Peter Crawley

Crawley is a 34-year-old small business owner making his first run for office. In his candidate biography, he describes himself as “a concerned citizen looking to instil some integrity and accountability into our government.”

ALSO: Read other riding profiles for the Ottawa-Gatineau region for Election 2021